my clarity in the numbers

i want to do my own analysis of what the delegate numbers mean and some possible outcome math. i'm going to forget about super delegates because i believe those should go with the majority of the popular vote, but that's just me.

so, according to demconwatch, obama, at this moment, has 148 more pledged delegates than clinton. with 566 pledged delegates left, there's plenty of room for clinton to come back, but is that going to be possible?

now lets take the primaries from last tuesday. in texas, including both the primaries and the caucus, obama took more delegates. in vermont and new hampshire the difference gives a slight delegate advantage to clinton. these basically cancel out (<> 120 delegates. but then comes NC and IN, which she will most likely not be able to make any gain on obama.

after those primaries come west virginia, oregon, kentucky, puerto rico, montana and south dakota. those equate to 217 delegates, and half of them are caucuses which have helped obama every time except for nevada (and possibly penn coming up). with current trends, obama and clinton will come out of these with one of them having a less than 20 delegate gain. this is just speculation based on the trends, but it has a more than 50% chance of happening.

now there's the michigan and florida question. the best case scenario for clinton is that the votes that were taken in their primaries get counted. a revote would, most likely, be advantageous to obama. if they were seated how they were voted, it would give clinton a 111 delegate gain. this is most likely not to happen, mainly because obama's name wasn't even on the michigan ballot, but it is her most favorable situation.

now you factor in the super delegate, which right now have a clinton advanatge between 30 and 45 delegates.

so here's the breakdown. clinton needs to catch up on about 120 delegates. she can do that by:
1.) winning the majority of the rest of the states by more than 15 points and doubling her super delegate advantage.
2.) getting her original votes in MI and FL counted
3.) getting a revote in MI and FL and majority of the states and getting a bigger gain than she has in super delegates.

my prediction:
1.) FL and MI votes won't get counted. the only fair way to do it would be a revote, which there's currently no way to pay for.
2.) obama will get a majority of delegates in the remaining states. at least by 20.
3.) the super delegates will even out and neither of the 2 will have more than a 30 delegate gain from them.

these will keep obama around 100+ delegates and win the nomination. clinton has to make some huge upsets, and i just don't see her having the resources to do it. if she doesn't get votes in MI and FL counted and she doesn't have a significant gain in delegates after NC and IN she should raise the white flag and start campaigning for 2012.